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Industry insight · 2024

The 9.9 RMB coffee war: what it means for F&B packaging

Iced coffee in a clear disposable cup — industry insight 2024

2023 was a breakout year for China’s freshly-made beverage market. Naixue reported its first full-year profit, Chabaidao, Mixue, Guming and A-Shang headed to the Hong Kong stock exchange, and Luckin Coffee surpassed Starbucks in annual sales in China for the first time — becoming the country’s largest coffee chain.

The numbers tell the story: Luckin’s 2023 net revenue reached RMB 24.9 billion, up 87.3% year on year, with 16,248 stores (+97.8% YoY). Mixue generated RMB 15.4 billion in the first nine months (+46.0%) with more than 36,000 global stores. The market itself grew fast: China’s coffee market expanded from RMB 28.4 billion in 2017 to RMB 119.1 billion in 2022 — a CAGR above 30%.

Growth came with a price war. In February 2023 Cotti Coffee launched its “9.9 yuan” festival; by June, Luckin rolled 9.9-yuan coupons out nationwide, and even Starbucks introduced limited-time 19.9-yuan offers. Tea brands joined with their own coffee sub-brands — Mixue’s Lucky Coffee alone reached about 2,900 stores.

Franchise expansion accelerated across the board: Chabaidao passed 7,900 stores (over 99% franchised), Heytea grew 280% in a year to 3,200+ stores, and Naixue opened franchising in July 2023. Down-market demand is rising — county-level chain tea shops exceeded 32,000 by the end of 2023.

For packaging suppliers, every new store and every delivery order means cups, lids, films and containers. When chains standardize at scale and compete on price, packaging that balances cost, performance and custom print becomes a real competitive lever — and that is exactly the kind of partnership we build with brand owners every day.

Written in 2024 and condensed from our Chinese industry newsroom; the market figures below cover 2023. Figures as published; the closing perspective is ours.

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